2026 Mid-Year Market Check-In: What the First Half of the Year Tells Us About Your Next Move
The Maui Market Didn’t Freeze — It Split in Two
Mid-Year 2026 Market Update — Maui County
For two years, everyone from Paia to the mainland has been waiting on the same thing: a big rate drop that would “unfreeze” the housing market. Buyers said I’ll move when rates come down. Sellers said I’ll list when the offers come back.
That big drop never fully arrived — nationally or here on Maui. And the market shifted anyway.
Nationally, it didn’t unfreeze so much as thaw, slowly, over the first half of 2026: more homes to choose from, more time to decide, more room to negotiate than buyers have had in years. On Maui, the real first-half story is a split, not a slow thaw. Single-family homes are holding up far better than condos, even with some price softening. Condos are seeing much steeper price declines and longer timelines. If you’re only looking at one segment or the other, you’re only getting half the picture.
The National Backdrop
A quick read on the mainland, via the National Association of Realtors, Redfin, and Freddie Mac:
- Inventory: ~1.56 million listings nationally as of June, or 4.6 months of supply, per NAR — real relief for buyers after years of thin selection, though growth is leveling off as some sellers step back.
- Concessions: 46% of sellers gave buyers some form of concession in May, per Redfin — a record for that month. Price reductions are far more common than during the pandemic-era frenzy.
- Rates: The 30-year fixed averaged 6.58%–6.82% as of late July, per Freddie Mac and Bankrate — better than a year ago, but not the dramatic relief buyers were holding out for.
- Price: National median existing-home price hit $440,600 in June, up just 1.8% year-over-year per NAR — a modest number that hides a lot of regional variation.
That last point matters more than any single stat: the national market barely exists as one thing. Which is exactly why the numbers below — straight from the Realtors Association of Maui — tell a more useful story than any mainland headline.
Maui, By the Numbers: Six Months into 2026
Single-family homes are still the steadier side of Maui’s market, but “steadier” doesn’t mean untouched. Closed sales are up a modest 4.3% year-to-date and pending sales climbed 9.4%, so buyers are engaging — but homes are actually taking a bit longer to sell than a year ago, 143 days on market versus 132, and the median price has softened, down 3.1% to $1,260,040 for the first half of the year. New listings dipped slightly too. It’s real, ongoing activity on the North Shore and beyond — just not the price-appreciation story a single strong month can suggest.
Condos tell a rockier story over the same six months. Closed sales are up 10.4% and pending sales climbed nearly 23% — buyers are engaging there too — but it’s taking noticeably longer to close, 159 days on market versus 137 a year ago, and the median price has dropped 12.1% to $650,000. Part of that comes down to regulation still being worked out with the County Council, and the specifics vary a lot from one complex to the next. If you own or are considering a specific condo, the most useful next step is asking about that building’s status directly rather than leaning on island-wide averages. (Average sale prices fell even more sharply than the medians for both property types over this period — a sign of fewer ultra-luxury sales closing, not a broad drop in typical home values. The median is the more reliable number.)
Note: this is island-wide Maui County data — RAM’s free report doesn’t break results out by neighborhood. If you want, I can help you pull North Shore–specific numbers separately, or you can let me know where you want to look.
What it means for you, locally:
- Buying single-family? You’ve got a bit more room to negotiate than the last few years — pricing has softened slightly and homes are taking a little longer to sell. Well-priced homes still move, just without the urgency any one strong month might suggest.
- Buying a condo? There’s real room to negotiate on price and terms right now — but it varies building to building, so let’s talk specifics for the complex you’re interested in.
- Selling single-family? You’re still in a good position relative to condos — but pricing needs to reflect a softer first half, not last year’s strength. Overpricing costs you real time on market here too.
- Selling a condo? Patience and realistic pricing matter more than usual. Reach out and I can walk you through what’s happening at your specific building.
Rates Aren’t the Whole Story Here Either
Mortgage rates spent the first half of 2026 drifting rather than diving, and Maui buyers feel that differently than mainland buyers do — our price points push more buyers into jumbo territory, where rates run higher still (30-year jumbo averaging 6.88% as of late July, also per Bankrate).
But the people actually transacting on Maui this year aren’t the ones who timed the market — they’re the ones whose lives changed: relocating from the mainland, downsizing after the kids left, consolidating a multi-generational household, or finally making the move to the island they’ve been visiting for years. If the only thing keeping you on the sidelines is a rate number, it’s worth running the math on what waiting is actually costing you — especially in a market where you may have more negotiating leverage today — in condos most of all, but increasingly in single-family too — than you will once rates ease and buyer competition returns.
The Second Half: Modestly Better, Not Fireworks
Nationally, economists are cautiously optimistic about where the back half of 2026 is headed. NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, forecasts existing-home sales to climb roughly 4% and median prices to grow another 4% this year, with mortgage rates averaging around 6.5% — assuming inventory keeps expanding and the economy avoids a recession. His word for it: “modestly better,” not fireworks.
That’s a good frame for Maui too. Nothing in the numbers above points to a dramatic swing in either direction — just steady, real activity that rewards buyers and sellers who are prepared rather than those waiting on a signal that may never arrive cleanly. If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for something dramatic before you make a move, the more realistic expectation — nationally and locally — is a market that keeps quietly improving, not one that suddenly flips.
Currently Listing: 720 Hana Hwy #7, Kuau
If you’re weighing a move to Maui’s North Shore, I’m currently marketing 720 Hana Hwy #7 in Kuau — moments from Paia town, Baldwin Beach, and Hookipa, and a single-family home in exactly the segment of the market that’s holding strongest right now.
See my listing here: MLS# 409014
Whether this home is the right fit or not, I’m always happy to talk through what this market — single-family or condo — means for your specific goals on Maui. No pressure, just perspective.
This market update combines national data from the National Association of Realtors with Maui County figures from the Realtors Association of Maui, Inc. (“Local Market Update,” All MLS, current as of July 1, 2026). Reported sale prices do not account for sale concessions or down-payment assistance. Market conditions vary significantly by neighborhood, price point, and property type — the North Shore, South Shore, and Upcountry markets can move in different directions at the same time. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a licensed real estate professional before making any purchase or sale decision.
Angela Olmedo Williams | RS-83168 | Coldwell Banker Island Properties (808) 419-1982 | [email protected]
Sources:
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- National Association of Realtors (NAR) — Existing-Home Sales Report, June 2026
- Redfin — 46% of Home Sellers Gave Concessions to Buyers in May
- Freddie Mac — Primary Mortgage Market Survey
- Realtors Association of Maui (RAM) — “Local Market Update, June 2026, All MLS”
- NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun Says Home Sales Expected to Improve in Second Half of 2026, published June 16, 2026
